Copyright © 1995 Brian Harmer
What an interesting election. In case anyone hasn't yet caught up with the outcome of the third election under MMP, the seats were divided as follows:
| Labour | 52 |
| National | 27 |
| New Zealand First | 13 |
| ACT | 9 |
| United Future | 9 |
| Greens | 8 |
| Progressive Coalition | 2 |
The likely outcome is a minority coalition government between Labour (Helen Clark) and Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition, dependent on the good will and common sense of the Greens and United Future for supply and confidence issues.
The full results are available at http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
Coverage on the night was fascinating as predictions ebbed and flowed, and now we settle down to the endless analysis with each party trying desperately to convince themselves that the results are really more favourable than the surface numbers would indicate.
All news items (except where noted otherwise) are reproduced by kind permission of copyright owner, IRN Ltd. Any text above this point, and all subsequent material in parentheses, and concluded with the initials "BH" is the personal opinion of Brian Harmer as editor of this newsletter, or occasionally "HH" will indicate an opinion from Helen. In all cases they are honest expressions of personal opinion, and are not presented as fact. This week's formatting is sponsored by Ian Grant, to whom many thanks On with the news: Helen and I had a bit of a mix-up as she has moved house this week, so we missed Monday and Tuesday. Apologies.
New Zealand's participation in the Opening Ceremony for the Commonwealth Games is in doubt. Chef de Mission Dave Currie is annoyed with the long delays the kiwi team will have to endure, before it marches into the main stadium on Friday morning. Currie says not much consideration has been given to the athletes' well-being, as they will have to travel and sit around for a total of five hours. He says he has voiced his concerns with the organisers, and will meet with them this morning. Currie says the opening ceremony officials are very keen to avoid New Zealand pulling out.
(Given the extroverted behaviour of the team in the entrance march, and the haka by the sevens team, they suffered not at all! - BH)
Wellington police are seeking expert advice on how long a kidnap victim could have survived in a small underground bunker, found in the Rimutaka Forest Park. The discovery of the wooden bunker eventually led to the arrests of three men on Monday night, who police say were planning to kidnap a public figure. Detective Inspector Norm Cook says a ventilation pipe had been placed in the bunker, and the effectiveness of the pipe is relevant to the inquiry. Police have begun digging out the bunker, and say it is likely to be tomorrow afternoon before an attempt is made to remove it from the bush.
Customs officers may soon have an electronic photo album to help watch out for terrorists. The Customs Service is looking at technology that uses software to digitally read faces, and compare them with a database. Information systems manager Peter Rosewarne says the September 11th attacks created a need for better security and border protection. He says face recognition software could identify someone like Osama bin Laden. But Mr Rosewarne says it can also speed the processing of ordinary travellers, through a trusted traveller scheme. The technology is already in use in a number of countries, as a means of identifying known criminals and terror suspects, at key security points. Peter Rosewarne says at the moment Customs is just playing around with the software, to see what it has to offer. However he says the technology is becoming very common in some countries, and New Zealand needs to be careful not to be left behind.
The tourism industry's nervous at the thought of Qantas getting a chunk of Air New Zealand. National claims the sale of a strategic shareholding in the airline to Qantas is a done deal. The Finance Minister Michael Cullen rejects that, but National says it is impossible to believe he does not know what is going on. The Tourism Industry Association says it is concerned at the possible effects on the travelling public. Chief Executive John Moriarty says competition is in the best interests of inbound and domestic tourists. He says a close financial relationship between the two airlines would obviously lessen that. Mr Moriarty believes the proximity of the election is driving the frenzy of interest in Air New Zealand's future ownership. He says he has received an assurance from the government that nothing has been agreed yet.
Gisborne police have decided not to press charges over the death of a leopard seal on a local beach. Several women were reportedly seen beating the dying mammal with hunks of driftwood. The women have since been identified and all have denied hitting the animal. Help from the public led police to two 17-year-olds and a 19 and 20-year-old. Police say they admit throwing pieces of driftwood at the seal because it was not moving and they wondered if it was dead. They acknowledge their stupidity. Because their explanation is supported by autopsy evidence that no physical trauma was associated with the attack, no charges will be laid.
(Some of the immoderate ranting on news groups about this alleged incident just made the people concerned look foolish. - BH)
Michael Cullen has said Labour will maintain a clear majority ownership of Air New Zealand. Dr Cullen has dismissed claims by National's David Carter, who believes a deal has been done to sell a strategic slice of the airline to Qantas. Mr Carter says industry insiders have confirmed the deal. Michael Cullen says he has heard of no proposal. He says Mr Carter is trying to wind the public up over a hypothetical situation, when Air New Zealand has yet to make any proposal to the government. He says as the share holding minister he will have to tell the public as soon as the company tells him. If it does he says, the government would have to consider it in the interests of competition. Air New Zealand, which would be obliged to tell Dr Cullen if it had negotiated such an arrangement, also denies there is any deal. Chairman John Palmer says if the board makes a decision of such strategic significance then it will immediately let the sharemarket know.
(This denial didn't stop Bill English reiterating it in the leaders debate on Thursday night, and embellishing it with the statement that all air-points would be extinguished. - BH)
New Zealand can do even better in terms of E-readiness, according to the Science and Technology Minister. The Hong Kong-based Economist Intelligence Unit rates New Zealand 18th in a list of 60 countries, in terms of being ready for the knowledge wave. The US comes out on top, with Australia sixth. Pete Hodgson says New Zealand spends more of its gross domestic product on information technology than any other country. He says new Zealand uses some aspects of e- business well, but not others. Exporters are a group that have yet to fully latch on to the potential of technology, he says. Technology commentator Nigel Horrocks says the government itself is making a good fist of transforming its processes for the wired world. And he says we can expect to be able to do a lot more government business over the internet soon. Mr Horrocks says the next three years should see a lot of progress in terms of E-government, and a number of developments will see the light of day next year.
With three days of campaigning to go, the Alliance is more confident than ever it will be returned to Parliament. Most political parties are today holding their campaign closing bashes. But the Alliance says it prefers to do away with a campaign close, and concentrate on campaigning until the very last minute. Leader Laila Harre's riding high on results of the most recent poll, which puts her just seven points behind Labour's Lynne Pillay in Waitakere. She says she is feeling great, and confident she will win. Ms Harre believes Waitakere people have got their head around tactical voting and will give her their electorate vote. She says if that happens Waitakere voters will have put two strong women into Parliament, as Lynne Pillay will make it in on Labour's list.
The Editor of the Dominion Post newspaper is sticking by his paper's decision to appeal for name suppression to be lifted on the identity of the target of the alleged kidnap attempt in Wellington. Richard Long says it is already an easy matter for New Zealanders to click on to overseas websites where the name has already been published. He says the Internet makes suppression orders difficult to police. Mr Long says the argument of their case is very simple: it is all to do with the public's right to know, and open justice. He says the court should only be closed when there is very good reason. Meanwhile, a bunker Wellington police say was intended to house the proposed kidnap victim has been removed from the ground by helicopter. The two-by-one metre wooden construction was discovered in the Rimutaka Forest Park north of Upper Hutt, by a member of the public several weeks ago. In wet conditions, the WestpacTrust Rescue helicopter, with a 30 metre strap dangling beneath it, lifted the bunker on to the back of a truck. Three men arrested on Monday night have been charged over the foiled plot to kidnap a prominent Wellington businessman.
(I am aware of no dimension of open justice that requires the naming of a victim. Naming the victim is nothing to do with justice, and in my view, everything to do with prurience. The catch phrase "public's right to know is a red herring. What right to know? There is no such automatic right. - BH)
While the mainstream pollsters get ready to deliver their final indicators before the election, a less conventional litmus test has better news for National. The Muffin Break stores have done the final count in their Bean Poll. Over the past three weeks, customers of the 32 stores have been voting for the party of their choice by placing a coffee bean in appropriately-labelled counter-top cylinders. In coffee beans, Labour is polling 32 percent, National 26 percent, the Greens and New Zealand First both 18 percent, and ACT 10 percent. Given this is a largely urban and probably young sample, the results are not considered entirely reliable.
National leader Bill English has addressed several hundred people in a closing rally in Hamilton today in an attempt to raise National's profile in the Waikato city. National holds most of the rural Waikato seats, often by a margin of several thousand. But Hamilton City is enemy territory for the party. The Hamilton East seat is held by National's Tony Steel, but looks certain to be recaptured by Labour's Dianne Yates. In Hamilton West, Labour's Martin Gallagher holds the seat against National's Bob Simcock, by a margin of close to two thousand votes. Bill English made special mention of his two Hamilton candidates at the rally today, asking people for their support. With just over one day till E-day, and his party struggling to gain ground, Mr English also told National supporters to ignore the polls. He says there is only one way to predict the future, and that is to make it happen. Bill English says New Zealanders need to think very hard about what they want to say on Saturday. He says the only way people can get what they want for New Zealand is to vote for it, and the small parties will not deliver. Bill English says a vote for the minor parties will be a wasted one, but a vote for National will give the public the changes it wants. He says it is not quite over and he believes National CAN do it.
A new national Pacific Island radio network will be on air by September. The Government has announced that the new network will be run by Pasefika Communications Network Limited and will draw on the skills and experience of Auckland-based Pacific radio station 531PI Ltd. Pacific Island Affairs Minister Mark Gosche says the decision will ensure that the new network is driven and operated by Pacific communities. The network is now all set to go to air on Sunday 1 September, broadcasting on the FM frequency around the country on 100 -108 Mhz. The Government has allocated almost $7. 7 million over four years to establish and run the network, which will also provide for regional input. National Pacific Radio Trust Board chairman Simativa Perese says the network provider would deliver Pacific voices, languages and stories to Pacific communities and other New Zealanders. The network will be run on a not-for- profit basis.
The official casting agent for a Peter Pan feature film is outraged someone is trying to muscle in on her patch. Diana Rowan is trying to cast a 13-year-old New Zealand girl for the role of Wendy. Meanwhile, she claims a Hamilton drama teacher is holding her own unofficial auditions, but at a price. Ms Rowan says Alice Morrell is charging 90 dollars for auditions with the successful applicants being allowed to go on to the official auditions. Diana Rowan says this woman has nothing to do with her. She says Ms Morrell is operating a scam which is wasting her time and that of the people she is auditioning.
A controversial purchase of shares earlier this month is thought to highlight the archaic state of the New Zealand Stock Exchange's rules and regulations. Stockbroker J. B. Were helped Guinness Peat Group buy 19.9 percent of the company Rubicon off-market. Following the purchase, the Stock Exchange received complaints that the share broker had breached its rules by buying the entire holding outside the market. NZSE chief executive Mark Weldon says he is now satisfied the affair was a misunderstanding, and J. B. Were acted in good faith. He says some redrafted rules and regulations have been submitted to the Securities Commission for approval. Following an investigation, the NZSE and J.B. Were have agreed the stockbroker will pay $50,000 towards redrafting the market's rules and regulations.
Winston Peters has pushed the subject of immigration at his final campaign rally - with grim warnings of the impact of what he brands "mass migration. "The MP has been speaking to a crowd of around 400 people at a lunch-time rally in downtown Tauranga. His speech was peppered with references to the immigration issue, claiming his party's the only one committed to urgent action, to bring immigration under control.
(This guy terrifies me. He has a natural charisma and charm and could be an effective politician, but instead focuses on fear issues, and attracts the increasingly fearful elderly to him. - BH)
Health authorities say New Zealand needs to develop an interagency approach to keeping an eye on outbreaks of salmonella poisoning. Research projects commissioned by MAF and the Ministry of Health into a new strain of the bug which hit the country over the last four years have now been completed. MAF spokesman Matthew Stone says they now know more about the risks associated with the introduction of foreign salmonella organisms. Dr Stone says the research showed limitations in this country's surveillance of Salmonella infection in animals. The tests confirmed that the strain of Salmonella in question, DT160, was new to this country, but they were unable to discover how the disease got here or where it came from. Dr Stone says it may have come from migratory birds, imported contaminated animal feed or human travellers. The strain was responsible for a spring die-off a sparrows in Christchurch in 2000, and then in other regions after that. In humans, the bug causes stomach cramps, fever, vomiting and diarrhoea. In 2001, it was the cause of more than a third of all salmonellosis cases in New Zealand. Dr Stone says there is now a reservoir of infection of DT160 in birds which will continue to infect animals and humans. He says safe food handling practices are essential.
Voters may have to add Michael Cullen's superannuation fund to the list of sticking points between Labour and the Greens. The Greens have attacked the plan to invest tax money off-shore, by drawing comparisons with a similar smaller scheme. A super fund for former public servants' pensions has incurred huge losses due to the global downturn. Greens co-leader, Rod Donald, says it has negative implications for Labour's plan to invest billions of tax dollars offshore, to meet the rising cost of superannuation. He says the Greens want to dismantle the fund. Rod Donald says investing the money in our children is the best way to meet the future cost of superannuation.
Victim Support is standing up for the rights of an alleged kidnapping target's right to keep his name secret. Police say the Wellington man was the intended target of three conspirators, who are now in custody. The man's identity has been suppressed - although that has not stopped a British publication naming him. Now the Dominion-Post newspaper is seeking to have the suppression order overturned. Victim Support Chief Executive Steve Caldwell calls the move ghoulish. He says the man's privacy is more important than public curiosity. Steve Caldwell says by law, the man has a right to be treated with compassion and dignity. Meanwhile, the lawyer accused of conspiring to carry out the kidnap will be returning to hospital tomorrow for further treatment of dog-bite injuries he sustained during his arrest. Fifty-two-year-old John Burrett has appeared in the Upper Hutt District Court this morning on four charges, including attempted kidnapping. He was dressed in pyjamas, with his right arm heavily bandaged. Burrett has been remanded in custody to reappear in court on Monday afternoon.
(Good thing too. By the way, those who think they got the answer the British publication have apparently been misinformed. - BH)
Air New Zealand has moved to quash speculation its air points might fall victim to any buy-in by rival Qantas. The prospect has been raised on the campaign trail in recent days, especially by the National Party. The Government has continued its refusal to comment on claims that the Australian airline is poised to swoop on a 25 percent stake in our national carrier. Air New Zealand managing director Ralf Norris says customers can rest assured their air points are not at risk, under any of the strategic options currently being studied by the airline. He says Air New Zealand customers have been caused needless concern by comments that their air points are to be cancelled. Mr Norris says the comments are mischievous and totally without foundation. National is not about to give up. Party finance spokesman David Carter has called on the New Zealand Stock Exchange to investigate the rumoured sale. He claims there is widespread acknowledgement within aviation and business circles in Australia that a deal has been done. He has asked the stock exchange to inquire as to whether the information is being evenly divulged between the Australian and New Zealand markets.
The High Court in Wellington has upheld the name suppression granted to the man at the centre of an alleged kidnap conspiracy. Wellington's Dominion Post newspaper had sought to have the suppression lifted. In refusing its request, Justice Hammond ruled that the possibility of harm to a victim has been recognised by law and has to receive serious consideration. He also refused to be swayed by the fact the man's name has already been published overseas and on the Internet, saying the law should not bend to the needs of technology. The Dominion-Post ordered to pay the legal costs of the man and police. The three accused are due to reappear in court on Monday. One of them, 52-year- old lawyer John Burrett, has told the media he will be pleading not guilty and that the only thing he has been guilty of was playing a stupid game.
The New Zealand team has stolen the show at the opening ceremony for the Commonwealth Games in Manchester. Several team members performed an impromptu haka in front of the Queen and Prince Philip, soon after our contingent marched into the stadium. The Queen smiled and applauded their effort - and the team also got a wave and a smile from her husband, Prince Philip. The haka upstaged the entry by Nigeria and cut across the announcement of their arrival in the stadium. The New Zealand team was led into the stadium by cyclist Sarah Ulmer.
There are calls for tighter quality controls at Work and Income, following claims of racial discrimination. A Wellington community group says Ministry of Social Development figures show European beneficiaries have an easier time getting extra help, than Maori or Pacific Islanders. The Downtown Community Ministry says Pakeha are more than four times as likely to get the Special Benefit as Maori. Director Kevin Hackwell says that is despite the fact Europeans are proportionately less likely to ask for it. He wants the case of every person who applies for a benefit checked, to see if they need a special grant.
Labour leader Helen Clark does not think the Greens will be in cabinet after the election. That is despite her party's last-minute slump in the polls, suggesting Labour is unlikely to gain a majority in the new parliament. The New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll has Labour at 38. 8 percent support. Earlier this year the party was consistently polling over 50 percent. Despite the possible need for a coalition partner, Helen Clark says she does not see the Greens being in a cabinet with her. She says you cannot negotiate a coalition agreement with a party that is prepared to vote against her in October next year when the moratorium on the release of genetically-modified organisms is due to be lifted. And the latest batch of polls are also bad news for National, with the party stuck in the low 20s.
Tranz Rail has so far been unable to confirm whether there have been any casualties following a train derailment in the Taranaki, this morning. The accident, 40 kilometres north-east of Stratford, is understood to have happened at around two this morning. Tranz Rail spokesman Alan McDonald says emergency services are at the scene. He says they are in the process of getting the rail operator and locomotive engineer out of the train cab. Alan McDonald says the cause of the derailment is as yet unknown.
(The driver was killed and the other person in the cab was seriously injured. The locomotives went down a bank and into soft mud which filled the cab. - BH)
The Prime Minister has started the last day of the campaign with a fresh attack on New Zealand First. Helen Clark says she has no regrets about the stand she has made against the party, which she has accused of campaigning on a platform of intolerance. Winston Peters, the NZ First leader, has made immigration policy a key plank of his campaign, and seen his support rise to almost 10 percent in this morning's Herald Digi-poll. Helen Clark has raised the prospect of New Zealand ending up like France, where anti- immigrant parties have made ground in recent elections. She says as Prime Minister she has a duty to speak up for tolerance and respect for others, regardless of their background, culture, or religion.
The opening ceremony of the 17th Commonwealth Games is underway in Manchester. The three-hour spectacular began at 8am New Zealand time, before a capacity crowd of 38 thousand people. The show is being broadcast to an estimated television and radio audience of a billion people. The Queen's due to arrive in about 20 minutes, before the parade of teams gets underway. The New Zealanders may have a surprise for Her Majesty. It is understood the Sevens team plans a haka for the royal party.
(They did! - BH)
Green party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons is not surprised Helen Clark is looking to her party for support. Ms Fitzsimons spoke to the Prime Minister last night, as the results gave Labour victory. She says Miss Clark has indicated a desire to have talks with the Greens, seeking support for a Labour led government. Ms Fitzsimons says she always expected the Greens to be the PM's preference . She says she cannot imagine Labour would find it easy working with the other parties on offer, United Future and New Zealand First. Jeanette Fitzsimons says the Greens are prepared to give support at the moment, but are not prepared to budge of the GM issue. The Greens co-leader is this morning having to come to terms with the fact that she is no longer the MP for Coromandel. Ms Fitzsimons was soundly beaten in the electorate vote. The seat was won by National's Sandra Goudie who won with a majority of 5,460 over Labour's Max Purnell with Ms Fitzsimons well back in third place.
Progressive Coalition leader Jim Anderton says he's looking forward to getting back to work. Mr Anderton expects to resume his role as Regional Development Minister in the new cabinet. He says he's also got a plan to grow a new party of the left over the next three years, after the destruction of the Alliance. Mr Anderton says he was disappointed with the media coverage of his campaign. He says most media treated him as irrelevant.
The man in the middle is outlining what he wants from Helen Clark over the next three years. The Prime Minister says she'll be talking to Peter Dunne about what support he can offer her minority coalition. The United Future leader is bringing eight new MPs into Parliament. He says it's clear people want to see a centre party that can work constructively with either side. And he says United Future will have to show it can get some movement in terms of its key policies. That includes a Commission for the Family, and more support for family-orientated agencies like Plunket. Peter Dunne says United Future will also have to show it's stable and sensible, and won't go the way of other third parties.
Labour leader Helen Clark says a minority coalition government is the most likely scenario as her party wins a second term in parliament. In her speech to party faithful in Auckland, she says the election has returned a status quo result . She thanked all New Zealanders who put their faith in the party and says it is a privilege and honour to lead the country. Miss Clark says there have only been three occasions in the last 70 years where the leading party in government has increased its majority going into a second term, and Labour has done that. She says her objective throughout the campaign was to see Labour return to government and to guarantee a stable, strong and progressive government for New Zealand. Over the coming days, the Prime Minister says she will talk to other parties which will be able to contribute to that stability. Miss Clark says she has already talked to the Green Party which has assured her that Labour has its support to form a government. She says the only ugly note that struck in the election campaign was those who tried to divide New Zealander against New Zealander. She also acknowledged the speedy election result delivered by electoral officials. Speaking to Newstalk ZB immediately after her victory speech, she told listeners she was 'a very happy Prime Minister'. Meanwhile, with 97. 7 percent of polling places counted - nearly 70% of the total number of votes - Labour has 41. 3% of the votes, bringing them 52 seats in total. National trails with 21. 1%, and a total of 27 seats. Likely coalition members United Future and Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition have 9, and 2 seats respectively. New Zealand First has 13 seats, Act has 9 and the Greens have 8 seats. Bill English is being magnanimous in defeat, saying while the result is disappointing the party must accept the will of the electorate. The National leader says he has thoroughly enjoyed the election campaign with a National party which has displayed an enthusiasm for street-level politics it hasn't shown for years. But political scientist Stephen Levine says there will be a fall-out from National, which he says has fought an awful campaign. The responsibility for that, he says, lies with president, Michelle Boag. Stephen Levine says he expects Bill English will be forgiven for his part in the defeat. Alliance leader Laila Harre failed to win her Waitakere seat, dashing the hopes of her party for any presence in the next parliament. She is not saying whether she will stand again. Her seat has gone to Labour's Lynne Pillay. Winston Peters has addressed a jubilant crowd of party faithful in Tauranga celebrating his phoenix-like rising. With 11 percent of the party vote and a stunning new majority in Tauranga, Winston Peters has plenty to be grateful for. He has thanked the people of his electorate for coming back to where they belong. Peter Dunne is calling his result a victory for middle New Zealand. He says the support for United Future shows that people are sick of extremes and are looking for a sensible middle-ground approach. With around seven percent of the vote, Act can expect to have nine seats. Richard Prebble says the next centre-left government will ignore the issues he has campaigned on at its peril. Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons has conceded defeat in her Coromandel electorate. She says she has heard the message from her electorate which apparently thinks she will be busier leading the Green team into Parliament over the next three years.
Date: 25 July 2002 Brian Dooley
Wellington New Zealand
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